人民幣升值的計量經濟模型推斷(pdf 25頁)(英文)

in inefficient state-owned enterprises, as well as pitifully low wages, China looks
like it should be able to out-compete other economies in almost any category of manufacturing with significant labourinputs. The response of politicians in America and elsewhere to this perceived threat has been to lobby for a change in China’s exchange rate regime and an end to Chinese ‘currency manipulation’.3 Despite the perverse impacts of the dollar peg on international adjustment processes,the complaints from Europe have been more modest than those from
America.4 Finally, other Asian countries are worried that China is hogging the region’s foreign direct investment inflows.
If one concludes a currency is misaligned, the next issue is to determine by how much. On this point, substantial disagreements rage over how undervalued the renminbi might be. Estimates vary wildly.5 According to the ‘Big Mac index’,a familiar, light-hearted indicator of whether world currencies are at their ‘correct’level, the renminbi was determined to be 56 per cent undervalued as of April In other words, a good dose of appreciation was justifiable.7 The Economist recently responded with its own ‘Starbucks tall latte index’ and reached similar conclusions.8 While the Starbucks tall latte index tells broadly the same story as the Big Mac index for most currencies, the two measures differ widely in Asia. According to the Starbucks tall latte index, the renminbi was only one per
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