瑞銀（UBS）投資研究（英語版）.pdf20

Slower China: Reduce Japan overweight
and cut materials to neutral
China: More negative newsflow ahead?
Growing evidence of a slowdown in China suggests to us that newsflow from that
source will remain negative, particularly in the sectors of the economy that
government policy has targeted. As such, we marginally reduce weightings in
Japan (but remain overweight) and take basic materials to neutral from a small
overweight.
Japan: Reduce position but stay overweight
We remain secular bulls on Japan. Restructuring has improved RoIC and cash
flow, allowing Japan to benefit more from the global upturn. But in our view the
process is incomplete and the economy not immune, at a time when consensus
increasingly appears to believe that it could be. We view Europe as a slightly safer
equity option; still leveraged to US growth, but less exposed to China and US rate
risk.
Basic materials: From small overweight to neutral
The basic materials sector is more exposed than most to a China slowdown, at a
time when valuations for cyclical sectors are marginally rich. Thus, while US
growth can continue to provide support, we view the increasing risk of negative
China news as an opportune time to take a more balanced position.

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