亞洲地區投資日報(20041110)（pdf 12）

Most bank stocks expensive on traditional metrics and > mean on FROTH ...
? ... but massive excess deposits and monetary liquidity throughout the region, and
very strong bank share price momentum
? In short, conditions argue for caution on near-term share price direction except
companies for which we have strong structural change / re-rating conviction
? US investors we met last week implicitly agree; most are tentative
? For those unwilling to take a directional view, our FROTH model highlights
valuation discrepancies for relative performance pair trades. See below.
? Our favorite long positions on fundamentals, valuation and re-rating potential:
? Dah Sing (0440.HK; 1M; HK$57.25) on potential ROE upside in acquisition
scenario;
? First FHC (2892.TW; NT$27.90; 1L), a potential acquiree with cleansed balance
sheet and improving ROE;
? Taishin (2887.TW; 1L; NT$28.80), geared to high-margin retail and wealth
management at valuation well below Chinatrust;
? State Bank of India (SBI.BO; 1L; Rs496.20) on attractive valuation
? OCBC^ (OCBC.SI; S$13.90; 1L) on strong core earnings and re-rating potential
on capital management, consolidation of GEL and strengthening position in
Malaysia
? BBL (BBLf.BK; Bt97; 1M) on volume growth leverage to capex cycle,
potential TPI resolution, and FIDF charge cancellation
? Most convincing shorts: Bank of China (HK) (2388.HK; 3L; HK$14.50), AMMB
(AMMB.KL; 3L; RM3.30), UOB (UOBH.SI; S$13.80; 3L), Krung Thai (KTBf.BK;
3M; Bt8.50)
? Stocks on which we have counter-consensus caution
..............................