中國經濟報告及策略報告(英文)(pdf 10頁)

Conclusion: The Sino-US trade deal is a positive
beyond the textile exporters. We think a positive trade
outlook and resource price pull-back should benefit
Chinese downstream equities, provided that pricing
power returns. If the government exercises greater
investment discipline, which is still unclear, we should
see a bottoming-out of the Chinese ex-energy equity
market in 2006.
The three external links: We believe there are three
key external links – trade, resource and capital – that
now integrate China into the world economy to an
unprecedented degree. These external factors are at
least as important as domestic macro factors for the
equity markets. 1) Export growth in general has a longterm
positive correlation with Chinese equities’ overall
performance. 2) Hot money inflows to China show a
strong long-term positive correlation with equity
performance. 3) Resource prices have a negative
correlation with downstream profit, but high oil prices
are generally positive for Hong Kong-listed China
equity indices, given the energy sector’s heavy market
weight. These factors are also the major wildcards for……
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