啤酒行業研究報告(pdf 44頁)(英文版)

Investment Summary 3
Branding War Breaks Out in China 4
One of China’s most attractive investment stories...................... 4
Slowly, the beer war is shifting from regional to national ..........6
Why go national? The Coors story in the US ............................7
The time is right for national brand building in China.................. 9
Only three brands are going multiregional................................10
Leaders have emerged and the likely winners are..........................13
Stock implications: pick the long-term winners............................16
Company Coverage 21
Harbin Brewery............................................................22
Tsingtao Brewery...........................................................33

An old saw in the brewery sector is that the beer market is as fluid
as the product. We believe the transformation of the beer industry
in China is reminiscent of the situation in the US in the 1960s to
1980s and the end game is shifting from capacity and distribution
to branding. Industry dynamics are improving with several market
leaders emerging as clear winners.
The marathon is nearing its end: we know the winners
We believe the beer segment has some of the best industry dynamics in China’s
consumer sector. Demand growth should be sustained by rising domestic, and
particularly rural, consumption. Selling prices are rebounding. In the richest 15
cities and provinces, the top three beer brands account for 68% market share.
Supply consolidation is nearly complete, the window for new entrants is almost
closed and frontrunners have clearly emerged. We believe that for several of the
leading brewers the stock market is still not fully discounting the sustainability
of their business franchise.

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