某某年中國電信產業分析報告英文版(pdf 19頁)

Overall Government Telecom
Agenda
? Tele-density / Telecom drives economic growth / global
competitiveness
? Affordable + available communications
? Improve quality - drive new services - drive china as innovation hub
? Reliable national corporate champions / best practice egs.
? Trusted for long term investment / pension- as opposed to SOEs
? International stage corporate champions
? Maintain control of the industry (eg use of price controls)
? Tap foreign capital without giving up control
? Dominance of home market - defence against foreign involvement as
WTO opens up mkt
? Support local telecom vendor industry/ R&D/Manufacturing base
? Telecoms equipment purchases major role in US trade relations
Since WTO foreign influence has
been muted….
? No major joint ventures (AT&Ts still only one)
? Complex, vague regulatory landscape, “designed” to thwart foreign
involvement
? Basic penetration high> low hanging fruit gone
? Foreign infrastructure involvement in China highly unlikely
? Involvement in low key VAS, small scale ….but best opportunity
? International carriers serving MNC’s making incremental progress
? From NNIs…..to full POPs in gateway cities …..to POPs deeper in
China.
? Investment restricted to support of MNC clients
Scenarios and implications of
change for infrastructure sales
4 > 2
China Mobile + CNC, China Telecom + Unicom
? Mobile Infrastructure: Strongly negative, especially short term, slightly
positive for FWB, integration products
? PHS Infrastructure: Strong positive, CNC/CT to continue aggressive rollout
? Fixed Infrastructure: Neutral, slightly positive
6 > 3
CM + ChinaSat, CT + China Railcom, Unicom + CNC
? Mobile Infrastructure: Negative, slightly positive for FWB
? PHS Infrastructure: Positive for CNC, negative for CT
? Fixed Infrastructure: Neutral, slightly positive
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